This was my first question at MVP summit and this is what I got from Microsoft.
It is very frustrating for developers, who spend so much time learning new technologies and never know how long will it last. Most of the developers are still developing applications using .NET 1.1. .NET 2.0 has vast changes and it will take some time for developers to move to .NET 2.0. Now .NET 3.0 is already released and new version of Visual Studio is knocking the door, which will add XAML and WPF as presentation layer development.
So what is the future? I would have to say, XAML and WPF is the future. Windows Forms and ASP.NET will still be around for a long time but do not count on them after 10 years.
So if you are a developer planning to retire in 10 years, you don't have to worry but if you wish to continue your development career past next 10 years, you better get ready for XAML ;).
I've been doing lot of development on XAML and now have started more WPF. Check out my articles and tutorials on www.longhorncorner.com.
Cheers!